《J Rural Stud》| Su et al：谁来赡养中国农村的老人?人们购买社会化养老服务的意愿及其影响因素研究
摘要：农村人口老龄化和城乡流动人口市民化给我国农民养老带来了前所未有的压力和挑战。社会化养老服务是满足农民养老服务需求的必然选择。本研究探讨了农民社会化养老的支付意愿及其影响因素。本文在实地调查数据的基础上，运用描述性统计方法和二元logistic模型确定并分析了农村居民养老社会化支付意愿的影响因素。我们观察到:农村居民普遍有支付农村社会化养老服务的意愿，但受自身经济条件、传统观念和外部供给条件的制约。影响农村社会化养老的因素包括婚姻状况、自理能力、新型农村社会养老保险参保、流动子女比例、健康状况、同居人口等。婚姻状况、新型农村社会养老保险参保、流动子女比例对支付意愿有正向促进作用。居民的自我照顾能力、健康状况与同一家庭人数呈相反的关系。从支付意愿来看，老年人受传统养老观念的影响更大，对子女的依赖性更强。对于即将老去的群体而言，促进养老责任向自身和社会转移的因素越来越重要，这对现有文献有一定的贡献。
关键词：社会化养老；支付意愿；影响因素分析；农村社会；中国
Abstract: The ageing of the rural population and the citizenization of the rural-urban migrated population have brought unprecedented pressure and challenges to Chinese farmers’ old-age care. Socialized old-age care services are a necessity to fulfil the service needs of farmers’ old-age care. This study examines the farmers’ willingness to pay for socialized old-age care and its influencing factors. Based on field survey data, this paper employs the descriptive statistics method and a binary logistic model to determine and analyze the influencing factors of rural residents’ willingness to pay for rural socialized old-age care. We observed the following: rural residents generally have a willingness to pay for rural socialized old-age care services but are subject to their own economic conditions, traditional concepts, and external supply conditions. The influencing factors of rural socialized old-age care include the marital status, self-care ability, enrollment in the New Old-Age Insurance System for Rural Residents, proportion of migrating children, health status, and the population living in the same household. The marital status, the enrollment of New Old-Age Insurance System for Rural Residents, and proportion of migrating children have a positive facilitating effect on willingness to pay. The self-care ability, health status, and the number of residents in the same household have a reverse effect. Considering the willingness to pay, the already-old are more affected by the traditional old-age care concept and more dependent on their children. For the not-yet-old, factors that contribute to transferring old-age care responsibilities to themselves and society have become more significant, which contributes to the existing literature.
Keywords: Socialized old-age care; Willingness to pay; Influencing factors; Rural areas; China
《Journal of Rural Studies》，最新影响因子为3.544，主要发表当代乡村社会、经济和文化、乡村性的定义和表征、乡村政策的制定、实施和论争以及人类与乡村环境的交互作用等，